Macroeconomic situation and quality indicators of loan portofolio, its econometric analysis

Esmeralda DOÇI, Dori RISILIA & Ina PAGRIA

Abstract Financial system stemming several types of risks, which arise as a result of its interaction with the surrounding economic environment and of his own activity, which affects the growth of Credit Risk and a possible decline in the profitability of the banking sector. However, continued efforts are made to building empirical models, which measure the extent of the impact of various macroeconomic variables on such indicators that speak to important indicator of banking system performance. The subject of our paper is to study the loan portfolio quality, mainly problematic loans. The hypothesis that we want to prove has to do with: “Does macroeconomic factors as important indicators in the management of these loans affect the quality of the loans portfolio”? So this study provides an empirical analysis of non-profit loans in Albania influenced by macroeconomic factors using Econometric Methods, and ARIMA model in predicting behavior in the short term period.
Key words credit, loan, portofolio, banks, indicators
JEL classification C32, C52, C58, F62